Future Books
Related Subjects: Projects Predictions Millennialism Utopias Catastrophes News and Media
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Viewing cycles of changeReview Date: 2007-03-12
A WinnerReview Date: 2006-12-12
Let's hope that Philip Brown continues to share his ideas. His publisher, Llewellyn, has picked a winner.
Sally England
A great book on astrology for beginners or prosReview Date: 2006-11-22
Excellent Insights!Review Date: 2006-11-22

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Determinism dies another little deathReview Date: 2003-02-20
Ogilvy is well equipped for the task. With a doctorate in philosophy from Yale University, he has taught at that venerable institution, as well as at the University of Texas, and Williams College. He has been interested in the relationships between human values and consumer societies, and headed the "Values and Lifestyles" research project at the think tank, SRI International (formerly known as Stanford Research Institute). He worked in scenario building with Peter Schwartz for Royal Dutch/Shell, and later co-founded Global Business Network (GBN) with Schwartz and others. At GBN, he specializes in corporate scenario planning and research on futures in business environments. He has also authored, Living Without a Goal (1994), China's Futures (with Peter Schwartz - 2000), and Many Dimensional Man (1977), as well as numerous other publications through SRI.
Ogilvy fleshes out his relational worldview in the first part of the book, where he traces the move from mysticism to rationalism, and the evolving recognition of the inter-relatedness of the world today. Emphasizing the growth of elaborate networks of information and obviously competing visions of the future, Ogilvy constructs an extremely useful framework for beginning to consider potential futures in the world at large. He considers changing relations in religion, politics, and economics, in the struggle between individual and collectivist posturing and power, and weaves together multiple, shifting disciplinary views in the human sciences, and interprets these into a new view of the world that avoids the excesses of zealots and nihilists alike.
Ogilvy takes a chapter to discuss the application of particular features of this new world to normative scenario building. Recognizing the philosophical shift from things to symbols, the growing emphasis on relationships, the shift to narration from explanation, and the questionability of "timeless norms", Ogilvy cautions against wholesale subjective relativism, and instead holds out the possibility of what he calls the democratization of meaning, and paths towards ethical pluralism, that strives to unite the normal, or what exists, with the normative, what ought to be. In this model, ambiguity is always present, and the potential for multiple interpretations is rife - and a source of welcome creativity. Likewise, the idea of heterarchy, a sort of hyperlinkish anti-hierarchy, creates opportunities for multiplicity as well. Rather than trying to devise the One True Path based on immutable "laws" of nature, multiple paths are carved out that represent the shared hopes and dreams of community and communities.
By Part Four, entitled New Rules, New Tools, it is quite obvious how scenario building works hand in hand with the relational worldview and ethical pluralism Ogilvy has discussed. The rest of the book is devoted to the use of the scenario building tool, with examples of scenario building in action in first an educational context, and then a healthcare context. He closes by reiterating why even thinking about one best future is no more possible that thinking about one best way of being human, and encourages the visualization of a "rich ecology of species in the gardens of the sublime."
The strengths of this book are many; it is an extremely enjoyable read, with just enough additional sources to round it up to a "scholarly" tome. In the best scenario building tradition, the thesis of the book is cohesive and plausible, and is an especially refreshing departure from much of the scenario building literature, that too frequently focuses on business applications and barely questioned assumptions defined by buzzwords. Ogilvy stresses the need for passion and pluralism to co-exist, reminds us of the true potential of communal/social creativity, and suggests the possibility of exhilaration in imaginations unfettered. Creating Better Futures is aptly named, and offers an "Etch-a-Sketch" blueprint to be used over and over to do just that.
Determinism dies another little deathReview Date: 2003-02-20
Ogilvy is well equipped for the task. With a doctorate in philosophy from Yale University, he has taught at that venerable institution, as well as at the University of Texas, and Williams College. He has been interested in the relationships between human values and consumer societies, and headed the "Values and Lifestyles" research project at the think tank, SRI International (formerly known as Stanford Research Institute). He worked in scenario building with Peter Schwartz for Royal Dutch/Shell, and later co-founded Global Business Network (GBN) with Schwartz and others. At GBN, he specializes in corporate scenario planning and research on futures in business environments. He has also authored, Living Without a Goal (1994), China's Futures (with Peter Schwartz - 2000), and Many Dimensional Man (1977), as well as numerous other publications through SRI.
Ogilvy fleshes out his relational worldview in the first part of the book, where he traces the move from mysticism to rationalism, and the evolving recognition of the inter-relatedness of the world today. Emphasizing the growth of elaborate networks of information and obviously competing visions of the future, Ogilvy constructs an extremely useful framework for beginning to consider potential futures in the world at large. He considers changing relations in religion, politics, and economics, in the struggle between individual and collectivist posturing and power, and weaves together multiple, shifting disciplinary views in the human sciences, and interprets these into a new view of the world that avoids the excesses of zealots and nihilists alike.
Ogilvy takes a chapter to discuss the application of particular features of this new world to normative scenario building. Recognizing the philosophical shift from things to symbols, the growing emphasis on relationships, the shift to narration from explanation, and the questionability of "timeless norms", Ogilvy cautions against wholesale subjective relativism, and instead holds out the possibility of what he calls the democratization of meaning, and paths towards ethical pluralism, that strives to unite the normal, or what exists, with the normative, what ought to be. In this model, ambiguity is always present, and the potential for multiple interpretations is rife - and a source of welcome creativity. Likewise, the idea of heterarchy, a sort of hyperlinkish anti-hierarchy, creates opportunities for multiplicity as well. Rather than trying to devise the One True Path based on immutable "laws" of nature, multiple paths are carved out that represent the shared hopes and dreams of community and communities.
By Part Four, entitled New Rules, New Tools, it is quite obvious how scenario building works hand in hand with the relational worldview and ethical pluralism Ogilvy has discussed. The rest of the book is devoted to the use of the scenario building tool, with examples of scenario building in action in first an educational context, and then a healthcare context. He closes by reiterating why even thinking about one best future is no more possible that thinking about one best way of being human, and encourages the visualization of a "rich ecology of species in the gardens of the sublime."
The strengths of this book are many; it is an extremely enjoyable read, with just enough additional sources to round it up to a "scholarly" tome. In the best scenario building tradition, the thesis of the book is cohesive and plausible, and is an especially refreshing departure from much of the scenario building literature, that too frequently focuses on business applications and barely questioned assumptions defined by buzzwords. Ogilvy stresses the need for passion and pluralism to co-exist, reminds us of the true potential of communal/social creativity, and suggests the possibility of exhilaration in imaginations unfettered. Creating Better Futures is aptly named, and offers an "Etch-a-Sketch" blueprint to be used over and over to do just that.
A new paradigm for shaping our futureReview Date: 2004-02-20
Ogilvy has an impressive background in both academia and the business world. Before co-founding the Global Business Network, he was a Professor of Philosophy at Yale and Williams, and a social researcher with the Stanford Research Institute (Values and Lifestyles Program). In Creating Better Futures he draws on all his experiences in these fields to outline what he sees as an emerging paradigm of how we view and shape society. This paradigm he calls the 'relational worldview': a view of the world which highlights relationships and interdependencies across and in spite of differences.
Ogilvy devotes a large part of the book to outlining his worldview - he identifies social structures which were dominant in the past & explains why they are no longer sufficient to provide us with the futures we want. Then he relates his argument for a new world view to shifts he sees in other social sciences, namely anthropology and literary criticism: the shift from objectivity to subjectivity, from things to symbols and relationships, from determinism to ambiguity and the existence of many different but equal possibilities which arise from meanings created and shared by and within groups.
Ogilvy points out that we already have at hand the essentials for creating a better tomorrow; the three key elements of players, values and tools we need are easily identified once we look at the world through the new paradigm of the relational worldview. He rejects the Religious Institutions of past eras, and the Governments and Marketplace of the modern era, as major players in future society. Placing individualist and collective societies at two opposite ends of the same spectrum of social organization, he identifies individuals within communities as the new actors in making decisions.
Similarly, the social values of this new paradigm are not found in the absolutism or determinism of religion, or the scientific objectivity of modernism. Nor are they found in the subjective relativism of postmodernism. Rather, values are found in the ethical pluralism of interrelated communities - an ongoing process whereby communities share their hopes and negotiate meanings as they try to get along with each other.
Recognizing that in an increasingly interdependent world there are a multiplicity of religions, races, standards, norms and values, Ogilvy's worldview identifies scenario-building as the tool best suited for creating better futures. Scenario-building is a process which provides a venue for a individuals and groups within a community to assess, articulate and negotiate its hopes and values for a better future. In the final chapters of the book Ogilvy gives a brief outline and some illustrations of the practice of scenario planning.
This is stimulating, though not easy, book to read. Adopting a new perspective is always challenging, and Ogilvy has included a lot of abstract philosophical, sociological and literary theories as he builds his case for a new worldview. However I chose this book because I wanted to read more than another "How to .." book - I wanted a book that would situate the technique of scenario-building in a wider social and global context. Ogilvy's well-considered paradigm provides a very good starting-point for us to contemplate as we try to negotiate our shrinking and increasingly interdependent world.
Scenarios of better futures -- "democratically endorsed hope"Review Date: 2006-05-16
So although it may seem at first to be a methodological work, this is more of a philosophical meditation on what lies behind the scenario planning methodology; an exposition of the worldview which informs and makes scenaric thinking, especially normative scenarios, viable. For detail on how to actually do scenario planning, we are referred to previous, more manual-like works by such authors as Kees van der Heijden and Peter Schwartz. Ogilvy's focus is different, and he shows how scenarios provide the catalyst for a conversation among communities about what they want to become. Rather than holding the perils of judgment or moral commitment at arm's length, then, as much academic work modeled on supposedly "hard" science wants to do, in this arena he argues for its importance. "World-weary pessimism seems so much more intellectually respectable than even the most educated hope. However, I would argue...that the fashionable face of all-knowing despair is finally immoral. Granted, the bubble-headed optimism of Pangloss and Polyanna are equally immoral. A refusal to look at poverty or oppression can contribute to their perpetuation; but so can a cynical commitment to their inevitability."
Ogilvy takes it upon himself to show how the practice of normative scenario planning anticipates a paradigm shift currently occurring in the "human sciences", by embracing an interpretive, relational, ethically pluralistic - but not shallowly relativistic - worldview. He situates this thinking in the broad currents of contemporary thought by reference to literary criticism, anthropology, psychology, sociology and other disciplines. Rather than claiming entirely original scholarship, then, here he joins "familiar dots in relatively unfamiliar ways". The book ranges across a vast and various intellectual territory in search of a sound basis for normative futures work. In my view he finds it, and presents it, extremely well. For example, he suggests an intriguing parallel between the trajectory of literary criticism and that of studying the future. In interpretation, the tendency has gradually shifted from an original emphasis on the author's intentions, to the text itself, and finally to the role of the reader in constructing her own meaning. Similarly, studying the future was long conceived as an attempt to reveal "God's intentions", after which it became mainly a scientific attempt to trace the story etched in the patterns of history, or reality itself; and finally it has emerged as a matter of creating worlds and meanings for our own purposes. (Rather than being merely "readers" of the world, though, we can now see ourselves of the authors of our own story, thereby closing the interpretive loop.)
This philosophical approach may sound specialized, but in fact it reads as a startlingly clarifying and accessible portrait of the best practice in thinking about possible futures; things that haven't happened yet. Rather than writing an instructional guide to scenario planning he takes the trouble to explain how and why the worldview underpinning this strategy makes sense, and how the whole philosophical current of the West of our age is tending in this direction. It is therefore suitable and relevant to a far broader possible audience. Ogilvy's philosophy experience allows him to understand complex writers and thinkers, but his business background has forced him to avoid the communicative obscurantism that accompanies them. He wants to use the ideas, but extracts these from their ugly and intimidating packaging for use in a purer and more potent form. He navigates us through the dilemma of relativism (anything goes) vs absolutism (My Way, My Tradition...) and comes out with a relational worldview and an endorsement of pluralist ethics.
Ogilvy describes the book as an "odd mix of philosophy and consulting". The book is indeed a rare hybrid, like its author, part-academic and part-consultant. And it may equally puzzle purist philosophers and dedicated profiteers. However, for anyone interested in being able to bridge the thought-worlds of academia and business (or thought and action; principles and profits), this combination is not only refreshing to read, it's a definite strength. Ogilvy has had a chance to "test in the marketplace" the ideas he picked up in philosophy, and the test has made them stronger. So, an odd mix it may be, but it's one pulled off so persuasively and elegantly that the book warrants the close attention of not only those already concerned with futures studies, but more broadly, anyone concerned about how quality thinking about the future ought to look. In this respect I am reminded of The Ecology of Commerce, by Paul Hawken, a former colleague of Ogilvy. (They were two thirds of the team that wrote Seven Tomorrows, an early scenarios book; the third musketeer was fellow GBN Peter Schwartz, who provides a brief but helpful foreword in this volume.)
Overall this is an excellent, erudite and very well written contribution to the thinking behind scenario planning, and is highly recommended to those in search of a comprehensive, theoretically informed account of that methodology, or indeed a broader sense of the importance and value of a normative orientation in discussing possible futures in any community.

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Just ExcellentReview Date: 2006-06-05
AmazingReview Date: 2005-10-17
Good Specialty FindReview Date: 2004-10-09
If your topic is death and burial rituals, look no further. This Berkeley professor collects everything you need in a way that makes sense.
My husband, not involved in the library sciences, thinks it is strange for me to be reading this book at night. I try to read and write about all new purchases for the library.
Worth itReview Date: 2004-06-08

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Sharp Pulp FictionReview Date: 2007-05-29
Great to see these books againReview Date: 2006-06-26
Looking forward to the completion of the Route 666/Demon Download saga.
(RAW Rating: 3.5) - It can't happen here.Review Date: 2006-01-04
Jack Yeovil has woven a tale of the future in DEMON DOWNLOAD. America, since ignoring global warming and other environmental issues, is a huge desert where whiskey is cheaper and more plentiful than water. The Great Salt Lake and the Colorado River are both dried up. The wall separating church and state has been dismantled and warring religious factions brawl throughout the country. The state of Utah, a vast wasteland of sand that has been renamed Deseret, has been taken over with the permission of the government, by the Josephites, a religious cult. Gaschuggers, a biologically altered group who drink gas for pleasure and sustenance, roam the countryside, terrorizing the inhabitants.
It is an interesting story that can strike fear in your heart because of the similarities to what we are witnessing in America today even though it was originally written in 1993. While the religious infighting may have been a bit exaggerated, this nation should take notice of what can happen when the wall of separation of church and state is torn down. Your religion just may not be the main one and others may wish to prey upon you. I had trouble sometimes, keeping up with the plot, as many new factions came into the picture. The story got choppy in some places and I had to reread sections to find out how I got where I was. The entire plot got just a tad bit murky at points but overall it was fascinating as well as funny and frightening.
Reviewed by Alice Holman
of The RAWSISTAZ(tm) Reviewers
4.5 Stars!Review Date: 2005-10-03
Vatican hitwoman Chantal Juillerat is sent to Fort Apache in America to locate and destroy the demon. However, by the time she reaches Fort Apache, the demon is already inhabiting the central control and weapons system of a US Cavalry-issue road cruiser, equipped with multiple, state-of-the-art weaponry. And by the time Chantal and Trooper Nathan Stack catch up with the vehicle, the demon has taken over the altar of a Catholic Church. But that is all fore play. This living virus plans to take over Fort Apache itself, and then spread out.
The personnel of Fort Apache find themselves trapped inside their desert outpost, commanded by an insane US Cavalry captain possessed by the malevolent virus. Time for Sister Chantal to get busy.
***** If you have ever read any comics in the "Magdalena" series (Top Cow Comics), you may very well see a resemblance. Chantal comes across as half Nun and half Valkyrie, but totally deadly. The author gives a brief look at Chantal's history, which makes the character a little more believable. If this series takes off, it could make for a great movie on the big screen someday. Terrific book! *****
Reviewed by Detra Fitch of Huntress Reviews.

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Intriguing and enlightening!Review Date: 1998-10-02
Outstanding Resource !!!Review Date: 2001-09-07
easy to learnReview Date: 2002-08-23
You're destined to love it!Review Date: 2000-03-25


A Man With Moral FabricReview Date: 2007-11-16
Toushin's book may in fact be unique, in that it is a defendant's document of his obscenity trial, and includes transcripts of the actual trial. It also includes transcripts of the development of the legal defense, interviews with possible witnesses that run the gamut from participants in the films seized, to mental health experts and sociologists.
Prosecuted under an insidious plan developed by the Meese Commission on Pornography, Toushin defended himself against the full brunt of the Federal Government. Most of the other businesses charged in this particular sweep of adult film companies closed, paid fines, and kept a low profile. To his lasting credit, Toushin fought to save his businesses, his personal freedom, and First Amendment rights.
The government's plan was brilliant, although it's legality was questioned by many, including the FBI. Smaller cities in conservative states were chosen as a venue where it was felt there would be a greater probability of conviction for obscenity. Postmasters in the chosen cities ordered and bought catalogs from adult businesses, then frequently purchased additional "specialty" catalogs. They then ordered films depicting acts that were determined most likely to offend a jury. It was actually stated the outcome of the trial was not crucial to the prosecution's plan. The real intent was to charge the defendants in as many states as possible at the same time and to make legal defense impossible financially. The adult companies would be bankrupted or closed even if it was later determined by the court the material they sold was legal and protected.
`Moral Fabric' reads like a good thriller. The reader is lead through the defense team's discovery process and then the trial, not knowing in advance what the outcome will be.
As the defense lawyers educate themselves on the BDSM lifestyle and it's wide variety of sexual practices, this reader was also informed. There are brow raisers and chuckles.
The book's true value is as a social document late 20th Century sexual practices, ideas on morality and individual rights, and legal precedent. It is fascinating now and surely will also be equally so in 50 years.
We live in a society where every art form, every kind of media, every kind of entertainment and even our advertising is directly influenced by pornography. Our ideas about sex and sexuality are in constant transition. If the financial numbers for the pornography business are correct, the creation, sales and consumption are a huge business that rivals or surpasses Hollywood. Someone is enjoying a lot of erotica. The success of "moralists" to shame some into submission and denial leaves a conflicted populace that want to continue consuming porn with pleasure, but must also punish...someone. It is telling that "someone" is not the creator, the participants, or the consumer, but it is the distributor.
Steven Toushin is to be commended for his insistence on personal sexual freedom, free speech, and his willingness to share his own life experience.
There are many memorable ideas and quotations. To paraphrase and quote a few favorites:
"The right to view legal adult material in one's own home is meaningless if there is no way to purchase or otherwise obtain it."
-Judge
"It is not popular speech that needs protection, but unpopular speech."
"The Gothic idea that we were to look backwards instead of forwards for the improvement of the human mind, and to recur to the annals of our ancestors for what is most perfect in government, in religion and in learning, is worthy of those bigots in religion and government by whom it has been recommended, and whose purpose it would answer. But it is not an idea this country will endure."
-Thomas Jefferson 1800
Do the times really change?Review Date: 2006-11-08
As some may recall, President Ronald Reagan tossed his religious conservative base a prize in the form of Attorney General Edwin Meese in the late 80's. Meese plunged headlong into controversy when he appointed the "Meese Commission" to investigate pornography in the United States; their report, released in July 1986, was highly critical of pornography and the effects it had on people. Essentially rewriting earlier government studies that pronounced that there were no harmful links between pornography and behavior to suit their conservative agenda, Meese gave the Reagan Administration license to attack the adult entertainment industry and they did so with zeal. Toushin became one of their primary targets.
In 1987, Toushin was arrested as part of "Operation PostPorn," holding him and his staff for twelve hours as some 40-odd shotgun and handgun toting FBI agents searched and stripped his office (after some two weeks of covert surveillance on your tax-dollars.) Under Meese, the Department of Justice had made pornography crackdowns a priority, and had arranged for men in two states to order the hardest of hard-core SM videos. This forced the trials to meet the "community standards" of the locations the items were mailed to (Tennessee and Utah) and eventually laws were amended to include pornography under RICO (Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations).
What follows in "Moral Fabric" is a panorama of how the government turned all of its energies on Toushin using movies that were as far afeild or disgusting to a jury of vanilla citizens as the times probably had (including fisting and scat), and how the prosecution was perfectly willing to exaggerate their claims in order to make their case. (The Attorney General of Utah claiming that Toushin was selling child-porn and bestiality being the most flagrant.)
Toushin is more documentarian than judgmental (but not completely outside the realm of zinger-tossing). The bulk of the book deals with how Toushin winds through the court system and prison, yet is also willing to name names. "The Destruction Of The Moral Fabric Of America" is not a light read. In fact, it isn't even an easy read. But frankly, Toushin made history and set precedent for those of us who may forget that battles were fought and at the cost of lives ruined and liberties compromised. While he may still be around to run a successful Theater in Chicago, his book is a reminder that not everyone walks through fire unscathed.
Destruction of the Moral Fabric ReviewReview Date: 2007-06-13
Steven is well-armed with historical facts, trial transcripts, and interviews. The reader is led circuitously through his first-hand experience with governmental repression and intimidation, his arrests, trials, jail time, his ruminations on pornography, BDSM, and the government. He covers a lot of territory. It is sobering! One cannot walk away from this book without feeling a little queasy about our government and its insistence on overseeing American's sexuality and desires. Steven likes to let the actual correspondences, court documents, and interviews speak for themselves; not that he doesn't express his opinions, there is plenty of that, but he backs up those opinions with cold hard facts. Be warned, nobody is off the hook in this book. Steven takes a cold hard look at the BDSM culture and lays out what he sees as the pitfalls and what his suggestions are for remedying these problems. Including what a certified Master/Mistress may look like and what the criteria for such a certification would entail.
Toushin has waited over 30 years to spill the beans so there's quite a mess of beans on the floor! What are we going to do with the mess? My suggestion, keep this book as a reference point for the long fight ahead...it is far from being over. Those that forget history are doomed to repeat it is the phrase that comes to mind. If we are to fight for our rights, to live our lives as we see fit then we have to build upon the blood, sweat, and tears of those who sacrificed and fought so hard because they had not other choice if they were going to lead life on their own terms. Sleep with one eye open America. As the government likes to keep parroting "freedom isn't free". Damn straight, we've got an internal war going on folks, right here in our bedrooms. Be prepared to fight! Don't worry, there have been warriors that have gone before us. We are not alone...read and prepare yourselves.
Legal and Historical ValueReview Date: 2006-10-18
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Great reading to help connect and understand mother earthReview Date: 2006-02-20
and not only mother earth but everything. The book offers information, reflections and activities that will help the reader appreciate everything that is around them...and I mean everything...from the stars in the sky to the cells in your body.
Brilliant!Review Date: 2005-12-27
a book for allReview Date: 2005-01-18
A hidden gemReview Date: 2004-12-06

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Discovering Your Church's Future Through Dynamic DialogueReview Date: 2004-01-05
See what others are saying about Dynamic Dialogue...Review Date: 2004-01-05
"Everyone talks about doing ministry as a team, but Dave Fleming shows us how by fostering healthy focused conversations that create team glue the leads to greater effectiveness. I plan to use these ideas in our church." -- Alan Nelson
"Dave Fleming has written this book to give the church a new roadworthiness. Fleming challenges the church to trade in its tourist mind-set for a missional seriousness and sensibility. But he backs up his challenge by offering more than filled-in potholes and resurfaced cracks. He paves a new road for the church to take into the future, a road of conversation and dialogue in which dialogue is more than an exchange of ideas." -- Len Sweet
Discovering Your Church's Future Through Dynamic DialogueReview Date: 2004-03-24
The Power of "Dynamic Dialogue"Review Date: 2004-02-14
is the people that God had brought together! His book not only
explains the rationale for "creative conversations", but literally guides you in the "how to's" of making it happen.
This could be a "manual" for bringing out the best ideas in your small groups, student leaders, and pastoral team. Great read!

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A must read...Review Date: 2004-01-30
Most Excellent!Review Date: 2004-01-21
In this day and age with rampant terrorism this book is a must if you want to give yourself a foot up on the rest of humanity.
DownwindersReview Date: 2004-01-21
Great BookReview Date: 2004-01-21


Bestseller in the MakingReview Date: 2000-09-13
Intriguing,provocative and ultimately awe inspiring!Review Date: 2000-09-05
Lawrence's Dream Keys For The Future is for right now.Review Date: 2000-09-03
Reading the FutureReview Date: 2000-08-13
Related Subjects: Projects Predictions Millennialism Utopias Catastrophes News and Media
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the changes of our life. Very readable. I enjoyed it.