Actuarial Science Books

Nothing else to say. The best book for actuarial mathematics. Also good for risk managers, in particular for operational risk.

Nothing else to say. The best book for actuarial mathematics. Also good for risk managers, in particular for operational risk. It does not introduce many concepts but rather take to advance level. Excellent concepts that can be applicable in any topic or situation. A must buy in you want to have your grips on acturial mathematics and concepts

When I took a job to model prediction of loss reserves for workers compensation insurance, I began to realize that the traditional statistical methods that I generally relied n would not help me (without modification). The required modification would be either to transform variables or to model long-tailed probability distributions. This is because in the insurance business you have to reserve for those big catastrophies. The cost data for workers compensation data generally show a high frequency of low to moderate costs (say in the range of $1000 to $50,000). However occasionally there are a few cases of severe injury causing permanent disability which could run over 1 million dollars. Even though the probability of occurrence is small the cost is so high that it cannot be ignored. Such claims will surely be found when large insurance company cover millions of employees over many years.

The problem occurs when insuring for floods, earthquakes, fires and other disasters. Stuart Klugman and Bob Hogg in 1984 wrote the first introductory text to acquaint statisticians with such probability models that are important in the insurance business. Other books covering the subject were covered in books on risk theory designed for actuaries. This book covers all the topics and assumes mathematical and staistical knowledge at the level of the book by Hogg and Craig (so some calculus is required).

When I took a job to model prediction of loss reserves for workers compensation insurance, I began to realize that the traditional statistical methods that I generally relied n would not help me (without modification). The required modification would be either to transform variables or to model long-tailed probability distributions. This is because in the insurance business you have to reserve for those big catastrophies. The cost data for workers compensation data generally show a high frequency of low to moderate costs... . However occasionally there are a few cases of sever injury causing permanent disability which could run over 1 million dollars. Even though the probability of occurrence is small the cost is so high that it cannot be ignored. Such claims will surely be found when large insurance company cover millions of employees over many years.
The problem occurs when insuring for floods, earthquakes, fires and other disasters. Stuart Klugman and Bob Hogg in 1984 wrote the first introductory text to acquaint statisticians with such probability models that are important in the insurance business. Other books covering the subject were covered in books on risk theory designed for actuaries. This book covers all the topics and assumes mathematical and staistical knowledge at the level of the book by Hogg and Craig (so some calculus is required).

"Loss Models from Data to Decision" is an excellent book that covers many of the areas of mathematics and statistics that property and casualty insurance (aka general insurance) actuaries are required to know. Topics include: frequency and severity models; aggregate loss models; ruin models; Bayesian statistics; credibility and simulation. The theory is well explained; with worked examples throughout and numerous exercises at the end of each section (these questions are based on past SOA and CAS exam questions, so are directly relevant to people studying for either of these exams). Solutions to the exercises are not provided in this book, but a separate solutions manual is available.

I am a lecturer in Actuarial Studies at an Australian university and set this book for one of my (later-year undergraduate) units. In my opinion, this is the best General Insurance text book available and students whom I have spoken to tell me that they like this book very much, too. I highly recommend this text for all student actuaries.

There are few works of nonfiction which I have been inspired to read in one sitting. Adams' _Risk_ is one of those few. It's more than merely accessible: it's fascinating. The writing is more than merely competent: it's enjoyable. Like the best Grisham novels, _Risk_ tells a tale of danger, skulduggery, bureaucracy, wrongful death, human nature, research, reasoning, the revelation and concealment of evidence, and the overturning of conventional beliefs and outcomes.

Adams opens for the lay reader a window into the jargon-laden field of risk assessment and risk management. He brings to the table two qualities usually firmly segregated in the literature: a solid, rationalist facility with the traditional tools of the trade (scientific method, mathematics, statistics, data visualization), and an honest and humane assessment of the incalculable and the social (human variability, social equity, adaptive feedback, and chaotic systems).

Adams' work is brilliantly contrarian, neither eccentric nor slipshod. He challenges the conventional dogma of regulatory safety authorities the world over; he cites verifiable figures from reputable sources to show that the authoritarian approach to risk management has not lived up to its overconfident initial promises. Further, he documents specific cases in which this failure has been denied and concealed, rather than admitted, confronted and used as a springboard to new approaches and more creative thinking.

Adams' particular field of expertise is road/traffic safety, which he had studied for some 15 years at the time of writing. He uses several examples from this realm in the book. He recounts the peculiar history, for example, of mandatory seat belt legislation. Of the eighty principalities and regions which enacted such laws, over twenty years later only one (the UK) offers time-series data which support the initial claims for national traffic fatality reduction.

Yet throughout the industrial world, the axiom "seatbelts save lives" is just that -- axiomatic. The average reader may find this story very disturbing; the beneficial result of seatbelt legislation is almost a religious dogma for residents of the industrial West. Yet it is hard to dismiss Adams' sober collection and presentation of data. His numbers are not from outlaw or revisionist sources; they are official statistics from the same countries which passed the laws.

It's obvious (and crash tests demonstrate) that seatbelt-type restraints must prevent vehicle occupants from rattling around inside a car during a crash, and thereby mitigate injury and/or fatality. Adams asks, therefore, how it can possibly happen that there were not sudden, dramatic, documented reductions in total traffic fatalities for whole nations, after seatbelt laws were enforced?

In answering this and other similar questions of "safety engineering" Adams introduces us to a fascinating problem in risk management theory: "risk homeostasis" or "risk compensation". Individuals, he argues, have a personal "risk thermostat", a risk level at which they are comfortable. If their sense of personal safety is enhanced by protective gear (or even by public information campaigns) then their behaviour becomes correspondingly riskier, until the "set point" of the individual risk thermostat is reached.

Since the risk per individual per hour of traffic injury or fatality is very small, only a slight deviation in behaviour is necessary to raise it significantly. If a driver drives a little faster, brakes a little harder, corners a little more aggressively because of being strapped in securely, then this might easily negate (or more than negate) the risk reduction provided by the seatbelt itself.

In support of this theory, Adams offers the troubling increase in pedestrian and cyclist deaths that immediately followed the UK seatbelt law. If drivers drive a little more dangerously, says Adams, it makes sense that more vulnerable road users would bear the brunt of the increased risk.

Were it not for this sincere concern for social justice, Adams might easily be dismissed as yet another libertarian. Many a safety-legislation skeptic's argument begins and ends with individual rights, resistance to "nanny" legislation, etc. Adams asks a tougher question: if safety means *everyone's* safety, does traditional traffic safety engineering really work? Or does it just shuffle the risk around, making it safer to drive a car more dangerously, but imposing more risk on pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists, etc?

This discussion occupies only a chapter or two of this thought-provoking book. Other chapters cover such diverse topics as: a taxonomy of personality types and their responses to risk; virtual risks versus immediate risks; and the fundamental contradictions of "cost/benefit analysis". Adams is forthright in criticizing the narrowness of the traditional highway and traffic engineers' vision. "Road safety engineers" consider their work successful if the fatality/injury rate declines on a given stretch of road. But the fatality rate may have fallen because people gave up walking or biking in that area. As long as the incident rate is low, the road is deemed "safe" -- even though residents and locals may know very well that it is dangerous, and make long detours to avoid it.

Adams argues convincingly that this disconnect between people's real experience on the ground, and the abstract perceptions of planners and authorities, is a serious and intensifying problem. The ingenious adaptibility of human beings to dangerous situations means that the engineers may be presented with false success (a dangerous road looks "safe" because of avoidance response) or with intractable riskiness (risk compensation defeating imposed engineering solutions). Many of the traditionalist solutions into which we pour millions of dollars may simply not work, and the way we measure our success may be faulty as well.

_Risk_ is an excellent introduction to the challenging work of John Franklin, Mayer Hillman, Robert Davis, and other members of the "new school" of road safety analaysis. It is a well-researched, well-written, and deeply provoking book. _Risk_ should be *required* reading for all traffic engineers, police, safety analysts, city planners, parents, insurance company executives, and economists. For the reader with an open mind, _Risk_ will raise more questions than it answers; it offers some really interesting new ways to think about and discuss risk.

John Adams is clearly one of the leading thinkers not only regarding Risk Management, but also decision-making where risk is involved. If you are expecting a book that limits itself to accident prevention and the purchase of insurance, you will be dilightfully suprised to find that Adams provides universal frameworks that apply to the entire universe of risk. Nor is this merely an ivory tower philosophical romp. Adams applies his frameworks to everything from the value of infant car seats to global warming to "zero accident" policies in the workplace and does so with wit and empirical data. His conclusions are often very counterintuitive, but he provides the data to back up his conclusions, often with surprising results (for example, that mandatory infant car seats was correlated with an increase in infant deaths in auto accidents and that seat belt laws did not decrease injuries in auto accidents).

The reader cannot help but benefit from Adam's wisdom, and he will enjoy the experience as well. The book is writen so well that I finished it with sadness; I was hoping that it would go on for at least another 100 pages. Having read scores of risk related articles and books, I can attest to the rarity of this feeling--I am usually begging for the end at about page 10. It takes great ideas and a masterful pen to acheive this, and Adams has both in abundance. If you are in the risk or safety professions (or work in the political realm) this book is required reading.

This book is a by product of a research project called "Risk and Rationality."

It represents a combination of risk compensation and cultural theory. The former posits all human beings have a risk thermostat. The latter illuminates a world of plural rationalities; it seeks to explain unresolved risks in terms of the differences in premises from which the participants argue.

It draws the following conclusions:

1. Everyone is managing risk.
2. Since we are dealing with risks, they are all guessing.
3. Their guesses are influenced by their beliefs.
4. Their behavior is influenced by their guesses.
5. Safety interventions do not influence risk propensities.
6. You will never capture "objective risk."

This book is a gem. It is well-written, counterintuitive, jargon-free and amusing. It will challenge your assumptions on risk management.

"Risk" by John Adams is one of those rare gems, a book which uncovers a nugget of truth about human behaviour, namely Risk Compensation Theory. Why do we take risks, especially on the roads, in cars, in dangerous situations? Why do some people take more risks than others? Apparently we have risk thermostats which we set to different levels of risk aversion. I saw the tv programme which covered this topic first and then I read the book by Mr. Adams. I was very impressed by the depth of research supporting his theories and by the graphs showing the different rates of fatalities for male/female drivers, for different countries or for different age groups. But I wonder: have we had too much analysis and not enough action at this stage? The trend of fatalities per 1,000 of the population or per 1,000 vehicles on the roads may be coming down in some countries but this is little consolation when the total number of deaths is staying steady or rising worldwide. 25 million have died already and perhaps another billion have been injured. It is time to try another approach.

"Autogeddon" by Heathcote Williams was a brilliant poetic diatribe on the havoc which cars can cause but it offered no solutions to the problem. "Risk" analyses in detail why we take the risks which cause this havoc, but equally offers no complete solutions. "The Joy of Motion" by John B. Gilmore goes a step further and offers a solution to the problems of transport which allows us to take risks and enjoy the thrill of motion at the same time. If you wish to find out more about this book then please email me.

This is an outstanding little book -- very insightful and thoroughly enjoyable. I am a pediatrician who has been involved with writing practice guidelines to prevent a very low probability but devastating outcome (brain damage following jaundice in newborns). The discussion of different types of people with different attitudes towards risk helped clarify some of the dynamics of the guideline committees I have been on. In fact, I liked the book so much I sent a copy to the head of the current committee working on these guidelines.

I also like it when people question dogma, and point out ways in which our previous experience and perspectives influence the way we perceive reality. For example, the possibility that use of seat belts by drivers might shift some injuries from themselves to pedestrians and cyclists had never occurred to me.

I highly recommend this book to anyone interested in risk.

Thomas B. Newman, MD, MPH
Professor of Epidemiology and Biostatistics and Pediatrics
University of California, San Francisco

I received the books quickly. They were in great condition. I want to thank them for everything.

Beyong being very beautiful, this book is a prime on actuarial mathematics, giving us a very readable treatment of essencial subjects. As the authors say, "among the book's key features is the probability approach (...) and the integration of life contingency concepts with risk theory". Nothing could be more relevant than that. The authors really have shown a special power of communication, making its reading stimulant.

What can you say about a book called Actuarial Mathematics? The title says it all. However, if this is what you like, this is the book for you. And it is even sort of understandable.

This book was enticing. The way the authors led you through example problems, teasing you a little, building excitement, and then....

Wham, bam, theory, ma'am...

You understand, open your own insurance consulting practice, make millions of dollars, and retire w/o ever seeing life contingencies again.

I have never picked up any writ or manuscript that captivated me as much as Bowers and his eloquent text! Without a doubt, this is the feel-good book of the summer! Words can not begin to describe the thoroughness of his explanations, the detail in each computation, and the fluidity with which the lessons flow!

As we enter another Presidential Political campaign, where the issues of saving Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security will be hotly debated, this is an important book that documents the history of the Medicare program from the 1930's to the ultimate passage of the program in 1965. Professor Marmor is uniquely qualified to bring life to the events. It should be read by all who will want to understand how we "got where we are", and perhaps give insight to ways to make these important social programs more vibrant in the 21 st century

Have you ever wondered how Medicare-the federal health insurance program for the elderly and some disabled--became such a hot news topic, or why its administration and benefit package (the lack of outpatient drug coverage, for example) seems so inexplicable and byzantine?

If so, Theodore Marmor's reissue and revision of The Politics of Medicare is the book you want to pick up. There is no comparable book of its kind. Other scholars have studied Medicare's origins. Journalists trace the ebb and flow of contemporary Washington battles over Social Security and Medicare. But Marmor, a Yale professor and health policy guru, has written the definitive analysis of how the political battles waged over health insurance and Medicare from the 1940s onward powerfully shape the debate over the program to this day.

Wondering why Medicare, unlike almost all major private insurance plans, fails to cover most prescription drugs? The seeds of an answer may be found in the fears of 1960s legislators that the unpredictable cost of drugs could swamp the program at its outset. Unsure why medical expenditures took off in the 1960s and 1970s? Partly because doctors, who had led the charge against a government-sponsored social insurance program for the aged, benefited enormously from generous rules that were designed to assauge their fears about participation. Puzzled how Medicare became such a political hot potato after years of uninterrupted popularity? Marmor deftly shows how the Reagan administration reoriented widely-held fears about medical inflation into narrower fears about the supposedly unsustainable cost of public programs.

Another reason that this astute volume bears reading, or rereading: Marmor shows that elections can really matter. In the absence of the Democratic majority in Congress that emerged from the 1964 elections, passage of Medicare would have been delayed or forestalled altogether.

Within the cozy world of health policy analysts, Marmor is known for being a staunch proponent of national health insurance and a skeptic about the potential of HMOs and different forms of "managed competition" to control health costs and delivery quality care. His convictions enliven the text rather than detracting from its rigorous logic. This is a book that anyone interested in the politics of health care, and in American politics in general, will appreciate.

One thing alone mars this otherwise impressive book: its packaging. Sadly, any seven-year old with access to Microsoft Excel could have improved on the volume's rudimentary and unappealing charts and graphics. But the reader shouldn't let this superficial flaw detract from Marmor's important and unusually well-written book.

The first edition of The Politics of Medicare, reprinted in part for the second edition, provides an engaging analytical structure for understanding the complex forces of governments and politics. While studying under the author, a gifted political scientist, years ago, the first edition was a cornerstone in our studies of healthcare politics and programs in the United States. The book equips the reader with the tools and knowledge to understand political forces well beyond the Medicare program.

The analysis of Medicare in the 1990s, found in the current volume, is excellent. This is an ideal time to read or reread the book since Medicare program changes will face our new President and the newly elected or reelected members of our House of Representatives and Senate during 2001. This fall I read the second edition and found the book very informative and enjoyable.

Revised for the first time since 1973, Marmor's *The Politics of Medicare* still stands as the best single book on the political genesis of Medicare. In this valuable new edition, Marmor brings his classic analysis up to date while addressing the arguments of contemporary critics of the program. During an election year in which Medicare looms large, there is no better guide to the political past and future of America's public health insurance program for the elderly and disabled.

I have read two reviews of this book in odd places, both of which are highly favorable. According to John Glasel of the Musician's Union in NYC, Professor Marmor's 'perceptive work analyzes the partisan squabbling that hs shaped Medicare over the years. The first part, a reprint of the first edition of this book, traces the history of the fight for government health insurance from the 1930s to the passage of Medicare in l965. The book's second part, completely new in this edition, brings the history up to date. Many scholars, according to Glasel, have long considered the first edition of this book the "definitive work on the subject. Its new edition should now be accorded that distinction." I agree with that judgement very much. So does Jeff Levine of WebMD's Washington Bureau, who described The Politics of Medicare as "a book for serious students of public policy," one which does not simply recite "historical facts" but analyzes the origins of Medicare and then, in a complex and thoughtful way, tells the story from l965 to l999.

Product was purchased for a class. It arrived on time and in good shape.

A must for anyone who regularly needs to reference security related material. The Handbook of Loss Prevention and Crime Prevention is a comprehensive manual covering all aspects of Security and I highly recommend it to you.

This book addresses the concerns of all employes in every type of organization. For managers, HR and Security personnel, it is a guide to understanding the phenomenon of workplace violence, and the procedural preventions and responses. For production workers, it explains why their co-workers sometimes threaten, intimidate,even attack or try to kill their bosses and fellow employees and what to do about it - proactively and reactively. The book is clear and prescriptive. It could have included a bit more on dispute resolution/conflict management among employees.

This book explores the case histories of people who have become violent in the workplace. The book provides thought provoking information on how to prevent and protect your workplace from becoming a statistic. The information presented is well documented and is written in a style that is easy for anyone to read.

I concur with the previous detailed reviewer and the book review clipped into the Amazon site. Excellent book.

When asked about health care innovations, especially practices directed at controlling costs, most policymakers and wonks point to private sector solutions, such as the cost-constraining effects of HMOs in the 1990's or today's ideation of consumer-directed health plans. But is this conventional wisdom wrong? What about public sector health policies, most notably in Medicare or Medicaid?

In a fascinating new book, two top thought leaders show how a powerful and complex Medicare payment formula led to fundamental changes across the health care system, facilitating a dramatic power shift from providers (hospitals and physicians) to buyers (Medicare, Medicaid, and employers).

In Medicare Prospective Payment and the Shaping of U.S. Health Care, Rick Mayes, Ph.D. and Robert A. Berenson, M.D. describe how Medicare's transformation from retrospective, cost-based payment methods to prospective payment systems (PPS) "both initiated and repeatedly intensified the economic restructuring of the U.S. health care system." In addition to providing a thoughtful history of Medicare PPS from a research concept to the single most powerful financial driver in health care, Drs. Mayes and Berenson make the case that the public sector has been the major innovator.

In building their case and exploring how PPS works in the real world, they interviewed 65 health financing experts, including several former CMS administrators. Bob Berenson and Rick Mayes do a nice job challenging conventional wisdom, which in health policy is always a good thing.

Earlier in my career, I cut my teeth on PPS at the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB), where my scope included Medicare Part A and hospital reimbursement policy. Therefore, for me, Medicare Prospective Payment and the Shaping of U.S. Health Care made for a particularly intriguing read. But you don't need to be a Medicare wonk to understand and benefit from this crisp, well-written book.

- Kip Piper

I think this book is very easy to read even for non-native people.
I am satisfied with the quality of contents.
The information of each article is very practical and useful.
Thank you so much.

How often have I wished I had the publications of particularly productive scientists bound together in one document. Despite modern IT-technique, which increases the availability of such publications, an appropriate book is still superior. Now there is such a book for those who are interested in risk from a psychological point of view. Its title is: "The Perception of Risk" and it contains 26 of the most important publications by Paul Slovic from the last 25 years. It starts with an introduction in which Paul summarizes and gives his perspectives on his papers.

No one who has come across the term risk perception can have missed Paul Slovic's name. As one of the leading scientists in the field of risk perception, Paul has covered large areas and tackled various problems in order to show how we view, react to, and handle situations and problems related to what we in common language call risk.

To call him one of the founders of the psychometric paradigm is too plain a characterization of the scientific contribution of Paul Slovic. The psychometric methodology is just the means he has used to study how human beings perceive, judge and make decisions about risk in various situations. He has introduced psychological aspects of risk into natural sciences, where risk earlier has been considered as a numerical and objectively assessable quantity. Now physicists, chemists, and even engineers realize that risk perception cannot be ignored and is influenced by many factors (e.g. voluntariness, familiarity, dread, equity) relating to risk and how risk is described. For those who want to make risk comparisons, inform people about risks or do anything else regarding risk, it is necessary to be familiar with risk perception.

With his great openness, Paul has been able to collaborate with scientists from many different areas, both scientifically and geographically. In this way he has improved and enriched his work with practical aspects in many domains, particularly radioactivity and use of chemicals. Therefore it possible for most scientists to find in this book interesting reading related to their own problems. The book only contains about an eighth (but a representative sample) of Paul's total scientific production. As the papers are ordered chronologically, it is easy to follow the development in time of different ideas and conclusions and to see how later studies derive from earlier ones in a logical way. Thus, in the two last chapters of the book, the ideas and views on risk are further expanded and offer exciting vistas for the future. In the same way as many of Paul's earlier ideas have been accepted and continued by later researchers, his recent views about "the affect heuristic" most certainly will be the subject for many future scientific publications.

t.malmfors@chello.se

You don't know health care policy reform until you know Luft!

ps - Thanks Beth!

Not for the basic consumer public - it is complex - as is the problem and solutions. This book clearly moves the dabate of health care coverage into a new realm. Not just tinkering around the edges - but a clearer view of how to move health care coverage and quality into the 20th century - where it has not been.

My students really enjoyed thinking about ways to verify database information associated with a dating service. A fun industry to think about, but the concepts and skills are anything but lightweight. Great package.